Category Archives: Blog

[If you missed the last pop up live on The Rate Cap Fork: A Small Decision That Sank Whole Deals, you can catch the replay here.] There is a line on almost every multifamily pro forma I reviewed between 2019 and 2022 that read like a small miracle. Operating expenses were projected to come in […]

[If you missed the last pop up live on What Your Portfolio Is Not Telling You About Risk, you can catch the replay here.] For about two years, bridge debt was not really a choice. The math told you so before you finished underwriting. Long term agency debt could not produce the loan-to-value or the […]

[If you missed the last pop up live on What Your Portfolio Is Not Telling You About Risk, you can catch the replay here.] The label that feels safe is often the one anchored to a market that no longer exists. In 2021, underwriting 10% year one rent growth was called conservative. Actual rent growth […]

[If you missed the last pop up live on The Diligence You Outsource Is the Risk You Keep, you can catch the replay here.] This is a special edition of the Underwriting Minute. The regular educational rhythm resumes next week. I want to explain why I am running a summer enrollment window for Mastering Multifamily […]

How the distribution waterfall can capture most of the upside before a limited partner ever sees it. [If you missed the last pop up live on  Buying Distressed Multifamily: When a Discount Is Not a Deal, you can catch the replay here.] Picture a deal that did everything the offering deck said it would. The […]

[If you missed the last pop up live on Why I Am Still the Bottleneck in My Own AI Workflow, you can catch the replay here.] The deal looks strong on paper. The NOI is solid. The returns clear the hurdle. The expense ratio sits at 37%. That last number is where I stop. A […]

[If you missed the last pop up live on The Two Assumptions I Have Been Watching Lately, you can catch the replay here.] There is a quiet assumption that keeps passive investors dependent: that underwriting is for the pros, and they are not one of them. It is the most expensive belief in passive investing, […]

A bridge loan does not become a problem at maturity. It becomes a problem the day the rate cap runs out. [If you missed my last pop-up live event on Two Key Assumptions I am Watching Carefully, you can catch the replay here.] The Quiet Cliff The deal looked stable on every quarterly update. Occupancy […]

[If you missed my last pop-up live event on Three Signals That Should Change How You Read an Exit Cap, you can catch the replay here.] A property can be presented as cash flow positive on day one and still be operating in negative leverage. The two statements live comfortably side by side on the […]

Why a “conservative” number in multifamily underwriting quietly becomes the riskiest assumption in the deal. A 75% break-even occupancy often gets labeled as conservative. The label is comforting. The label is also misleading. Break-even occupancy answers a real question in multifamily underwriting: how much revenue can a property lose, through vacancy, concessions, or rent decline, […]